MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6303230210dd87b4fd9beb6cb0fcdf050bbcc83cfe48efe90d8b6d173da4839a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 3,856$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 3,341$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 1,845$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 25c | 975.88$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.16 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…746ebacked Over | 37c | 767.57$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 743.81$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.05 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 69c | 738$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.23 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 58c | 707.45$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.06 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 640.81$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 607.92$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 37c | 511.12$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.74 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 374.97$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 45c | 247$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…1e01backed Over | 13c | 242.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 36c | 237.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 43c | 233.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 57c | 228.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 29c | 207.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 41c | 156.24$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 29c | 96.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 40c | 74.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…91cbbacked Over | 34c | 73.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 34c | 42.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…612bbacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.