MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9806c6e281a4b69fde77a2359fafb96ccb8061ad662829ea654a1d23d201740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 56c | 3,545$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.71 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 39c | 2,884$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.87 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…68b2backed No | 61c | 2,700$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 2,690$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.61 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 40c | 2,250$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 1,960$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.82 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,831$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.72 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 1,761$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.79 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 59c | 1,244$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 61c | 1,090$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.05 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 61c | 1,024$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.36 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 39c | 946$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 47c | 572.87$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.73 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 44c | 526.83$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.94 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Yes | 49c | 482.09$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.22 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Yes | 43c | 454.54$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.45 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 372.32$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 5c | 261$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 56c | 224.55$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 56c | 222.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 56c | 175$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…69acbacked No | 56c | 156.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Yes | 45c | 146$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…fb58backed Yes | 40c | 145.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 39c | 127.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 90.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 56c | 89.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 57c | 81.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 39c | 71.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 57c | 60.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 45c | 48.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 45c | 48.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…a77bbacked No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…cd1dbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…b550backed Yes | 46c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysthis page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.