MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6302f41e10e0fe06400e985aba2f3ac34899e39cbeb93f7811c801aba2f14657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 76c | 5,999$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.46 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…7a15backed Over | 42c | 2,151$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 1,968$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf775…bd87backed Over | 3c | 1,900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 58c | 1,515$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 38c | 1,094$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.84 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 34c | 515$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.1 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 36c | 343.86$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 39c | 275.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.