MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00eaef7036396448458560f3e7343ed08cb4f1fcc247c9dd805cf39d97fcebd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $451,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 141,635$76,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,152.12 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 46c | 87,204$40,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,113.68 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 46c | 22,222$10,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,222.12 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 18,659$8,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,582.39 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 19c | 12,209$2,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked Over | 48c | 5,744$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.09 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 69c | 4,751$3,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,487.73 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 32c | 4,242$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 3,219$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 2,339$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.03 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,530$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.38 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 58c | 916.83$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 73c | 645.42$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 20c | 472.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 46c | 393$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 46c | 393$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 339$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 294$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 290.11$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.35 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 262$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 252.14$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 67c | 224$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 46c | 196.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 182.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 54c | 178.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 13c | 140.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 46c | 138$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 114$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 66c | 105.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Over | 48c | 97.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 79c | 94.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 46c | 91.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 55c | 91.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 21c | 77.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 60c | 69.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Over | 21c | 68.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…cd1dbacked Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 49c | 44.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 52c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.