MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x441f53be1e2b83ca12051894c13ae1c5bc681538880732510f205f952112c270

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved: Aug 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,243 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Toronto Blue Jays	52c	6,424$3,327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,096.5	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees	48c	3,357$1,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,607.66	11,606	52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L	+210.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays	49c	3,231$1,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,653.17	4,401	47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L	-76.3wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees	51c	3,161$1,607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,607.07	8,251	46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L	+41.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees	32c	2,350$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.61	4,428	45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L	+87.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays	50c	1,528$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$763.86	5,517	50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L	+26.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays	54c	1,141$612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.43	3,107	48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays	67c	1,006$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.84	2,148	51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L	+50.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays	47c	669$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.81	8,654	52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L	+506.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees	45c	658.54$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.72	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked New York Yankees	49c	599$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.51	750	50.8%381 W · 369 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed New York Yankees	50c	576.92$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.46	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees	25c	418.1$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.52	1,960	41.4%812 W · 1,148 L	-25.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked New York Yankees	49c	340$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.6	221	49.3%109 W · 112 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays	50c	319$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.5	1,894	49.3%934 W · 960 L	+24.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	8,451	47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L	+81.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac6…db45backed New York Yankees	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebf3…50a8backed New York Yankees	50c	192.3$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.15	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-29%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf04b…049abacked New York Yankees	50c	192.3$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.75	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-6.4wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a41…f527backed New York Yankees	50c	192.3$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.15	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-5.2wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed New York Yankees	54c	174.91$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.45	879	52.8%464 W · 415 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays	50c	156.12$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.06	7,046	50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed New York Yankees	50c	154$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed New York Yankees	49c	119.76$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	1,224	54%661 W · 563 L	+33.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked New York Yankees	49c	118.53$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.22	801	43.3%347 W · 454 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Toronto Blue Jays	69c	114$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.34	135	57.8%78 W · 57 L	+8.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays	52c	105.77$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.77	3,857	42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed New York Yankees	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	160	45.6%73 W · 87 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked New York Yankees	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked New York Yankees	49c	102.03$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed New York Yankees	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	146	45.9%67 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Toronto Blue Jays	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	1,448	50%724 W · 724 L	+26.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed New York Yankees	49c	96.15$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.58	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Toronto Blue Jays	50c	78.15$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.07	144	53.5%77 W · 67 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays	46c	76.39$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.38	11,054	51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L	+137.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x282b…cc76backed New York Yankees	50c	67.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…9e7bbacked Toronto Blue Jays	52c	58.94$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.29	195	49.2%96 W · 99 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Yankees	33c	56.61$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	1,221	50%610 W · 611 L	+5.7wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Blue Jays	51c	54.38$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.65	1,970	53.1%1,047 W · 923 L	+45.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…6232backed New York Yankees	52c	54.16$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.01	182	44.5%81 W · 101 L	-14.3wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed New York Yankees	52c	50.96$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	65	56.9%37 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd6…cfdebacked New York Yankees	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	1,839	53.9%992 W · 847 L	+22.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked New York Yankees	48c	49.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	72	58.3%42 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Yankees	48c	48.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	232	48.7%113 W · 119 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees	45c	48.02$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	1,236	44.3%547 W · 689 L	-30.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Toronto Blue Jays	49c	40.86$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.84	333	48.3%161 W · 172 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf2d5…ab77backed New York Yankees	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.2wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x232f…8002backed New York Yankees	50c	39.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-5.4wins	-0.18per pick	45cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x947d…dff0backed New York Yankees	49c	38.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1fd…9994backed New York Yankees	50c	38.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-5.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc915…2b84backed New York Yankees	50c	38.46$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-4.9wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked New York Yankees	42c	35.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	236	42.4%100 W · 136 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.55	2,423	49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L	+20.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked New York Yankees	50c	29.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed New York Yankees	50c	29.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	393	51.7%203 W · 190 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6c…f3eabacked New York Yankees	48c	27.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	41	63.4%26 W · 15 L	+3.2wins	+0.08per pick	56cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x256a…8fb4backed New York Yankees	49c	27.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-4.5wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays	48c	26.42$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.68	2,191	40%876 W · 1,315 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58d3…5651backed New York Yankees	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event