MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0aff121f68139d2a46aef59d482856a0528422b1d3f3a219a862e3cb04b6631
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 40c | 3,204$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 3,035$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed New York Yankees | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 2,425$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 41c | 1,734$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 44c | 1,704$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 947.76$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 37c | 867.69$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.05 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 765.15$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 11c | 674$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.25 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 405.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.25 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 49c | 321.32$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.86 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 75c | 317.84$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 235.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…1e90backed New York Yankees | 72c | 222$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 171.13$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…f713backed New York Yankees | 11c | 147.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 40c | 115.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed New York Yankees | 36c | 106.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Yankees | 31c | 101.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked New York Yankees | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 76.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Yankees | 38c | 74.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 64c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 46c | 65.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 45c | 54.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 45c | 45.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked New York Yankees | 50c | 38.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 35.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d8f5backed New York Yankees | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed New York Yankees | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked New York Yankees | 72c | 16.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.