MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa59ee6be0fecdae80e56c9736f8587f5e9f999af7fb06fdc6190d8ed6669522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 57c | 35,088$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 43c | 24,056$10,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,711.83 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…32b6backed Yes | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,599.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 4,270$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.4 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 3,517$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,969.45 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 43c | 2,742$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 43c | 2,656$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 43c | 2,444$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 56c | 2,001$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.13 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 1,464$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 57c | 1,393$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 57c | 1,255$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.84 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed No | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 56c | 892$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.52 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 56c | 884$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.04 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 54c | 735.36$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 43c | 657.42$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.32 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 56c | 591$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.96 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 43c | 586.79$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.47 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 536$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.74 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 500.9$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 499.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 56c | 482.45$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.17 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 56c | 450.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked No | 57c | 442.44$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 388.85$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.15 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 383.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 43c | 283.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 208$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 206.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 56c | 201$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 47c | 151.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed No | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Yes | 43c | 126$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 58c | 88.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 57c | 70.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 38c | 64.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 57c | 61.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed No | 53c | 47.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…561dbacked No | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed No | 68c | 41.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ee6abacked Yes | 45c | 40.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…c665backed No | 73c | 37.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…16f5backed Yes | 44c | 25.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.