MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1933cc91c4c441826db564f2abf047ee2534f075c918301a59911134be8bba3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 7,029$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,865.71 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 3,788$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 2,785$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 2,419$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 650.09$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 18c | 604.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 510.87$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 6c | 504.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Boston Red Sox | 8c | 498.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 70c | 402.86$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 366.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 252.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Boston Red Sox | 16c | 245.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 230$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 215.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 165.97$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 77.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 32c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 71.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 67.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 64.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 62.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 53.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Boston Red Sox | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 45.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Boston Red Sox | 51c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 21.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.