MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2914c152d593e5ed928776602179e95d0cc837d7c5383dea5e682bc04d77b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 14,157$6,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,514.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 56c | 13,150$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 50c | 9,663$4,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,794.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 5,939$2,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,032.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 45c | 3,455$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,892.36 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 67c | 2,942$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.2 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 2,684$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…487dbacked Under | 55c | 1,933$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 56c | 599.97$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 504.74$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 44c | 499.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 432.58$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.71 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 390.49$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 44c | 384.01$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 44c | 358.02$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 53c | 271.9$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.84 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 45c | 269.9$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 53c | 268.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 240$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 65c | 237.76$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 56c | 215.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 190$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 45c | 140.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 54c | 138.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 54c | 138.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Under | 53c | 116.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 56c | 111.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 43c | 105.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 57c | 96.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 50c | 95.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 45c | 90.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 51c | 88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 473 | 46.5%220 W · 253 L | +25.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 43c | 84.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 70.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 62.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 53c | 52.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…cd73backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 55c | 29.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…6d55backed Over | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…8d08backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Over | 42c | 24.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 24.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 52c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.