MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c0c5c64a965403f3d339e3259da91d483153999817c193170ffc6321795b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 23,157$8,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,261.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 68c | 21,767$14,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,770.39 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 48c | 13,103$6,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,224.17 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 41c | 7,330$3,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,327.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 6,011$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 64c | 3,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,919.99 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 36c | 2,032$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.83 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.96 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 1,373$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.17 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,361$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 36c | 1,029$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.89 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Under | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 56c | 750.4$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.27 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 36c | 499.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 480$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.87 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 59c | 468.38$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.6 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 36c | 410.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.81 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 281$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 272.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 36c | 232.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 37c | 216.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.21 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 48c | 196.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.25 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 36c | 195.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.98 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 191.75$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 140.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 64c | 139$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 36c | 117.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 36c | 112.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 92.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…64b5backed Over | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 85.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…4a59backed Under | 62c | 72.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3971…44debacked Under | 65c | 68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 36c | 53.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Under | 69c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…cc48backed Over | 62c | 48.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 62c | 44.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 37c | 33.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 29.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 36c | 29.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 61c | 28.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 65c | 18.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 73c | 16.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.