MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b67e5e8656e86ae80a28cd8eb4092176ff89c0b658420e81b99bd75074cf3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa90…c709backed No | 58c | 2,436$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.51 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 2,405$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 1,716$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.53 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 1,250$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Yes | 42c | 1,189$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 42c | 1,095$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.05 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed No | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 59c | 826.81$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.82 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 58c | 767.24$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 651.89$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.67 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 58c | 641.97$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.34 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5be…7019backed No | 58c | 562.68$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…359dbacked Yes | 44c | 380$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 56c | 350$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 339$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 58c | 338.21$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 44c | 314.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 56c | 310$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.7 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 241.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 48c | 196.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 8c | 181.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 44c | 167$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 146.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 144.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…944dbacked No | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 104.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked No | 58c | 95.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 41c | 90.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 46c | 82.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…a77bbacked No | 56c | 75.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…9ec0backed No | 59c | 55.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…6068backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…376abacked Yes | 42c | 35.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…78a3backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2367…75a4backed No | 57c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York Metsthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.