MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98ec2cc071af21737bb6bfc6c50710e12d1aff907b666e3ad446f7cda66f9ee6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 5,836$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,976.53 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 2,729$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.66 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739f…e091backed Under | 45c | 2,225$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,702$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 51c | 1,600$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 1,084$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.58 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 1,025$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.75 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 66c | 392.52$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.71 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 355.77$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Over | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 83.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 51c | 61.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 55c | 60.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 52c | 50.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 53c | 49.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Over | 51c | 48.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 65c | 46.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 38c | 40.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 39.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…09b1backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 32.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 52c | 30.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 56c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.