TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Metsof San Diego Padres, New York Mets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$275,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres33c39,854$13,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,281.6610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked New York Mets57c34,232$19,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,879.949639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed New York Mets65c27,700$18,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6467352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres38c24,598$9,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,397.9811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7414…72a3backed New York Mets70c22,367$15,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,638.41471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+29%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed San Diego Padres47c21,331$10,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,025.435440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres33c16,655$5,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,428.198,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked New York Mets53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.9253150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x047f…bf3abacked New York Mets64c9,600$6,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,488.21353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets53c9,080$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,267.651,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f48…235cbacked New York Mets54c8,128$4,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.022035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed San Diego Padres43c8,060$3,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,472.3779442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce36…2b99backed San Diego Padres32c7,940$2,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5487132.4%23 W · 48 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Mets64c7,883$5,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.114,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed New York Mets65c7,169$4,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.2323255.6%129 W · 103 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres41c5,577$2,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.1312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Mets54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,30048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets70c4,783$3,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.268,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed San Diego Padres31c4,517$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.4995045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed San Diego Padres46c4,259$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.9160043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed New York Mets53c3,774$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,773.5834942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x739f…e091backed San Diego Padres28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked San Diego Padres28c3,100$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked San Diego Padres46c2,992$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.3313355.6%74 W · 59 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets65c2,936$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.082,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed San Diego Padres46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15015851.9%82 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres46c2,497$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.553,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed San Diego Padres46c2,485$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.049749.5%48 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed San Diego Padres17c2,448$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.081,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres36c2,341$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.214,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed New York Mets65c2,312$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.1312759.1%75 W · 52 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78cc…a081backed New York Mets53c2,242$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.516446.9%30 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres32c2,123$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.598,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe6…4797backed New York Mets53c1,650$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+61%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed San Diego Padres29c1,592$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.7713453%71 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa90…c709backed San Diego Padres49c1,450$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.56256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed New York Mets53c1,415$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.0989153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc42…6bd4backed New York Mets64c1,371$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed San Diego Padres51c1,168$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.5533864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked New York Mets51c1,050$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.59831.6%31 W · 67 L-13.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Mets53c1,036$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.851,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres46c1,004$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.856,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked New York Mets53c1,002$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.9445445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed San Diego Padres46c888$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.481,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed San Diego Padres47c839.74$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.361,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked New York Mets69c818.24$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.242,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed New York Mets63c794.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.4347358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres42c662.97$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.151,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d0…712dbacked San Diego Padres37c659.95$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.799950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd692…8b9abacked San Diego Padres33c656.73$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7530529.8%91 W · 214 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked New York Mets57c650$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.552053.8%280 W · 240 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres35c625$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.791,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed San Diego Padres46c587.4$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.21,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ac…b7c1backed San Diego Padres39c542.04$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked San Diego Padres36c542$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1224252.9%128 W · 114 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked New York Mets52c523.53$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.2930647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52de…8f92backed San Diego Padres27c485.71$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13014469.4%100 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed San Diego Padres40c436.84$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17631957.4%183 W · 136 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e55…a332backed San Diego Padres47c426$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.227050%35 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed San Diego Padres47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013743.8%60 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked San Diego Padres47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007860.3%47 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed San Diego Padres48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020350.2%102 W · 101 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8b…5e36backed San Diego Padres49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed New York Mets78c382$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.041,10079.6%876 W · 224 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed San Diego Padres44c334.02$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.672,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres35c324$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.745,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Mets62c323.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.191,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed San Diego Padres37c307.25$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5748660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa6…9361backed San Diego Padres33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003315.2%5 W · 28 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed New York Mets53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14139846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres38c284.3$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.371,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed San Diego Padres46c280$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.81,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed San Diego Padres30c270$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8127231.3%85 W · 187 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06fa…d071backed New York Mets79c262.94$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.287742.9%33 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed New York Mets67c228.72$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4819453.6%104 W · 90 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed San Diego Padres36c224$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6425447.6%121 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed San Diego Padres36c223.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3647852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked San Diego Padres46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.21,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed San Diego Padres46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.21,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed San Diego Padres36c219.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2225053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked San Diego Padres29c217.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.212128.9%35 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed San Diego Padres36c217.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.711,12144.1%494 W · 627 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked San Diego Padres35c214.89$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.771,14142.9%490 W · 651 L-37.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked San Diego Padres47c212.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9928553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x003f…3805backed San Diego Padres22c212.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.85644.6%25 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked San Diego Padres47c208.33$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9248147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed San Diego Padres43c208.05$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.0242451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked San Diego Padres46c203.8$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7516845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a46…c6a0backed San Diego Padres48c200.42$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.29753.6%52 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed New York Mets53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3814…17bcbacked San Diego Padres47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x054d…97c5backed San Diego Padres49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked New York Mets64c189.48$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5638053.2%202 W · 178 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked New York Mets54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1965248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked New York Mets54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.195846.6%27 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked New York Mets63c183$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7128753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked New York Mets63c183$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7127952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Mets68c170.38$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.871,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked San Diego Padres23c163.93$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.885,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.