MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedaa9b8bbb5996a663c53235857ea20752fee7015f451a962c998424d9890d1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof New York Mets, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 77c | 10,813$8,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 20c | 10,019$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.7 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 5,860$3,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets | 36c | 5,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 2,890$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed New York Mets | 44c | 2,666$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.04 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets | 20c | 2,100$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 50c | 1,161$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.08 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked New York Mets | 36c | 1,126$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 74c | 1,103$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Mets | 36c | 1,068$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.48 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739f…e091backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 35c | 1,016$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 1,016$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets | 42c | 705.3$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.89 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets | 34c | 613.59$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 584.2$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.31 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 525.44$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 25c | 505$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 478.42$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed New York Mets | 36c | 304.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Mets | 36c | 293.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 282.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Mets | 13c | 208.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed New York Mets | 34c | 200.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets | 32c | 186$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 175.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 154.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed New York Mets | 36c | 152.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 123.95$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked New York Mets | 35c | 123.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 117.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 106$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked New York Mets | 36c | 104.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Mets | 45c | 99.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked San Diego Padres | 64c | 87.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 85.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Mets | 45c | 85.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 73.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 68.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed New York Mets | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Mets | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 46.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 44.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed New York Mets | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 36.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 34.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 30.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets | 35c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 28.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres | 80c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 18.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.