MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3911a147e66759f619048c22b856bbaabff71159b3569eeccba0154f430d9bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 23,144$13,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,870.56 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 13,335$7,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,789.09 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 44c | 12,752$5,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,551.32 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 56c | 8,465$4,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,708.46 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Over | 43c | 6,160$2,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.78 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Over | 43c | 5,984$2,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…30e5backed Over | 42c | 5,387$2,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,262.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 56c | 3,404$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.82 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 3,300$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 57c | 3,099$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.78 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 42c | 2,023$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.76 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 1,815$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 1,756$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.09 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 1,565$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 1,123$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.48 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 929.3$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.93 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 912.45$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.8 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 58c | 709$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.78 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 546.48$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.66 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 6c | 418.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 344.83$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 45c | 276$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 58c | 233.8$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 224.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Under | 29c | 199.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 29c | 192.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 170$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 45c | 169.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 44c | 156.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 172 | 45.9%79 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 71c | 153.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 127.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 114$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 98.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 45c | 98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 43c | 73.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 44c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 42c | 50.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 58c | 45.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 56c | 44.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 57c | 39.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…4e03backed Over | 45c | 30.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 39c | 29.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 44c | 27.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 56c | 21.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 58c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…53d5backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.