TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes43c20,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,599.944645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e74…5972backed Yes43c8,313$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,574.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes38c7,049$2,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.2749250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked No57c5,861$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.417745.5%35 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad4…6866backed No63c5,128$3,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.8515849.4%78 W · 80 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked No57c4,376$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.582,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7604951%25 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No56c3,050$1,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.081,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No57c2,400$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03211655.2%64 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed No62c2,196$1,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.1313453%71 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed No57c1,800$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77420455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed No57c1,766$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.4922257.2%127 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c75…227fbacked No57c1,554$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.396656.1%37 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed No59c1,489$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.8728152%146 W · 135 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes41c1,483$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.677647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed No57c1,404$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.517564%48 W · 27 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6d0…712dbacked No56c888.54$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.999950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked No57c855$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.654362.8%27 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes42c768.7$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b25…edc5backed No59c758.77$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.777846.2%36 W · 42 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No57c706$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.581,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed No59c678.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.5818658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed No73c601.56$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.451,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked No57c546$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.8328753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…54a7backed No57c528.88$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.42875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes43c498.43$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.316,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed No56c447.36$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.848148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked No57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.617952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa845…6b8fbacked No57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.68351.8%43 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe13f…c817backed No57c427.18$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked No57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17227952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed No57c400$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1743450%17 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked No56c385.44$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5923052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Yes42c380.17$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.7912350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed No56c343.27$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0423357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaea5…26e3backed No58c342.11$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.1119454.6%106 W · 88 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf17d…e1c6backed No60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.331540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13269453.6%372 W · 322 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked No57c291.54$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.365642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes43c250$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.55,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Yes44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes41c224$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.751,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked No57c210.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5321955.3%121 W · 98 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d1d…f2dfbacked No73c204.14$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1214943.6%65 W · 84 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e2…af02backed No58c202$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8213850.7%70 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No55c181$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.451,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed No73c180.27$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6713858.7%81 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0477…631cbacked No59c177.63$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.6317155.6%95 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa422…d210backed No57c176.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0312555.2%69 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6fc…9d95backed No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4152750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Yes42c117$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.635453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a75…dd88backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x272c…45ddbacked Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x992d…75b7backed No57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.268058.8%47 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2636…8699backed Yes42c103.55$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a56…c6e0backed No57c103.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.514450%22 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.220552.7%108 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked No57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7229747.1%140 W · 157 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked No59c85.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0922257.7%128 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed No56c81$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.646155.7%34 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes42c79.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67339.7%29 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Yes43c68.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.984944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes43c67.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.211,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…bf83backed No57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.87356.2%41 W · 32 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed No57c56.14$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1435652.5%187 W · 169 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4910…1f9ebacked Yes44c54.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1607…2c65backed No58c51.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7221954.8%120 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes46c49.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591,80353.8%970 W · 833 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes31c45.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0854715.9%87 W · 460 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-44.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yes41c41.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0219353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a50…c1e5backed No61c41.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.15850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No56c40.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7273653%390 W · 346 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1614751.7%76 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f87…e128backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.093256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e25…bed3backed No57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a0…f673backed No56c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.525050%25 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes41c32.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4558352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d6…8727backed No61c26.61$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.312055%11 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3e7…d01abacked No57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.322356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1110452.9%55 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d1…8315backed No57c22.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b16…1290backed No57c19.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.265056%28 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.