MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa349a861eaaa03b9a577c25d69856e6a905ab8d8e657909c4e2e62c25b652e3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 9,873$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 9,014$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,515.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Yankees | 58c | 1,390$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.59 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed New York Yankees | 61c | 939.49$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.4 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 891$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.01 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 386.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Baltimore Orioles | 27c | 152.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Yankees | 42c | 100.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed New York Yankees | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked New York Yankees | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 70c | 96.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Yankees | 61c | 93.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 89.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 88.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 81.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 80.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…ebc3backed New York Yankees | 75c | 66.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 44.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 44.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Yankees | 59c | 43.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed New York Yankees | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked New York Yankees | 28c | 39.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 28.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked New York Yankees | 48c | 23.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 61c | 18.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 17.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.