MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe2e7d96e47da6e29a65dbc2316eb926e03cf9ba249353e33c27c61c757f1bdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 62,219$33,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,166.69 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Under | 55c | 20,950$11,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,449.63 | 232 | 55.6%129 W · 103 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 40c | 20,055$8,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,022.19 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 19,386$8,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,339.3 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 19,218$9,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,167.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 45c | 15,554$6,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,999.15 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 13,432$6,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,161.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…b2aebacked Under | 60c | 12,301$7,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,920.27 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 60c | 7,575$4,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,029.81 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 3,149$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.55 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…7b9bbacked Under | 62c | 2,391$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…8289backed Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.79 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 47c | 1,266$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 1,128$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 913.74$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.94 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 40c | 912.69$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.11 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 741.83$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 41c | 700.5$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…c12abacked Under | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 539.9$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 39c | 437.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 57c | 399.8$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.02 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 61c | 358$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 41c | 354.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…0db6backed Over | 53c | 305$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 56c | 295.77$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 290.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 248.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 228$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 40c | 222.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 43c | 184.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 148.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 68c | 146$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 43c | 137.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 43c | 129.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 40c | 125.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 58c | 119.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 111.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 39c | 99.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 51c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 42c | 95.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 63.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060d…d746backed Under | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 67c | 51.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 50c | 43.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 44c | 41.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 55c | 40.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 46c | 36.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 79c | 35.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 44c | 34.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 52c | 31.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 65c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 39c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 48c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 22.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 57c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 74c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.