MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x807cbea0276ce85e4d7bcef0290443a82412d4f4c05b85078892fe9651ca657d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 70c | 10,769$7,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,232.79 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 30c | 8,769$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.65 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 70c | 2,160$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 30c | 1,677$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.14 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 1,170$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 30c | 933$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 30c | 900.2$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 575.72$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 31c | 513.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…ecb8backed Under | 68c | 451.9$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 30c | 265$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 32c | 188.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 70c | 188.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 67c | 174.43$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Under | 70c | 168.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 30c | 143.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 65c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 105$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 67c | 104.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 27c | 97.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 30c | 93.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 35c | 84.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 64c | 78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Under | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Over | 31c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 41c | 49.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 32c | 41.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 40.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 39.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 39.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 33c | 30.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 69c | 23.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…4a0abacked Under | 67c | 19.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 66c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.