MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7597098ac28a7cab2b986d887a004f2094079fafd01c70bda239780f2da3084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 44c | 23,005$10,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,882.64 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 12,648$7,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,085.23 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 4,919$2,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,754.44 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 56c | 2,679$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 58c | 2,069$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 61c | 2,044$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 1,883$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.89 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…3f29backed No | 61c | 1,818$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 58c | 1,680$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.09 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 39c | 1,600$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 59c | 1,264$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 1,010$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 45c | 949.71$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 892.01$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.24 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 42c | 878.2$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.36 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 60c | 875$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 852$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.16 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 57c | 707.16$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.04 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 42c | 645.63$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 535$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 59c | 506.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…fcb2backed No | 58c | 434.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed No | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 39c | 388.11$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.74 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 39c | 378.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.93 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 378.49$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 39c | 325$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.25 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked No | 57c | 263.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 58c | 260$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 59c | 256.87$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 39c | 224$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked No | 57c | 205$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Yes | 40c | 178$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d8…20f6backed No | 57c | 151.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 58c | 139$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 42c | 133.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 118.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 42c | 114.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked No | 56c | 103.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…c1f2backed Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +381.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 39c | 39.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 56c | 36.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…bed3backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.