MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefcf0e03813ea42cfa2ca46237454fe03cf70a222c1d2cd7840faac7f7302def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Under | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.97 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 35c | 1,966$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.72 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 1,001$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…ba13backed Under | 66c | 898.87$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.65 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 64c | 819.99$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.79 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 759.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.06 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 734.58$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 31c | 734.35$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.14 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 66c | 620.55$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.86 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 441.94$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 33c | 326.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.81 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 67c | 299.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 35c | 217.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.08 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 31c | 176.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c5c3backed Under | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Under | 62c | 106$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 65c | 80.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 67c | 66.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…30f8backed Under | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 51.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 38c | 38.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…5301backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…b1b6backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Under | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 67c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.