MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e15626343cefce6cc5955453db4d47adff733b4fed56d17e51d90ff26f93314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 33,333$17,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,666.47 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 26,890$12,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,251.7 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 22,640$11,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,999.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 6,769$3,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590.9 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 5,838$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,094.17 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.15 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 2,862$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,868$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,494$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.03 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,345$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.58 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 740.95$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 19c | 494.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 434.39$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.23 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 399$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.32 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 361$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 6c | 300$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 266.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 226.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 216$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.48 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 215.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.02 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 165$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 127.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 112.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…774abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 80.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 78.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 69.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 60.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…1029backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 56.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 52.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 49.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee4…8804backed St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 44.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 37.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…044abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 37.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 30.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 27.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 22.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.