UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c78d5e4b744f073d61ac688892ceda2648419ca42e5d607d8d0b6b61c93daac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 50c | 6,445$3,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,207.27 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509b…8a55backed Under | 50c | 4,539$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.99 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Over | 51c | 2,941$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Under | 53c | 2,764$1,465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 47c | 2,759$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.93 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,708$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.46 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74f…acbbbacked Under | 54c | 465.04$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed Over | 51c | 450.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Under | 52c | 424.51$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Under | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 48c | 204.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…6701backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…1bfabacked Over | 48c | 198$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Over | 47c | 188.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 54c | 138$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 46c | 134.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 95.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…b0a7backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…ef8bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…3eefbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa36…44f3backed Over | 51c | 57.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 50c | 57.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…59c6backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…67afbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Under | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadca…16b0backed Over | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Over | 48c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…4fd8backed Under | 53c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…2ed4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims)Jalin Turner won
- Will Jalin Turner win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Kauê Fernandes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.