UFC · resolved market
UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12b94e84a6a85904c2ee0534b796b0b1f5664dc0472a1f677e6c67c6fac015e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lucas Fernandoof Lucas Fernando, Rafael Tobias
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $343,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Lucas Fernando | 73c | 72,720$52,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,733.24 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Rafael Tobias | 11c | 34,263$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.56 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed Rafael Tobias | 26c | 27,400$7,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,123.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…2658backed Rafael Tobias | 30c | 27,397$8,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,113.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 22,222$16,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.93 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 17,545$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,733.18 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Rafael Tobias | 26c | 14,377$3,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,737.97 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Lucas Fernando | 74c | 13,514$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.51 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Rafael Tobias | 28c | 12,507$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.04 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151e…cedebacked Rafael Tobias | 28c | 11,677$3,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325.99 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lucas Fernando | 70c | 10,631$7,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.54 | 171 | 50.9%87 W · 84 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 10,357$7,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.4 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 130 | 39.2%51 W · 79 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 9,531$6,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.66 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Lucas Fernando | 71c | 7,500$5,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 7,300$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Lucas Fernando | 71c | 6,000$4,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Lucas Fernando | 78c | 5,603$4,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 5,520$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.4 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 5,400$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Rafael Tobias | 23c | 5,111$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.71 | 157 | 36.9%58 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…e1c1backed Rafael Tobias | 0c | 5,083$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Lucas Fernando | 70c | 4,201$2,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.58 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…4633backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 4,104$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…f935backed Rafael Tobias | 12c | 4,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Lucas Fernando | 78c | 3,400$2,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.99 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 3,278$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Rafael Tobias | 11c | 3,030$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.47 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 2,943$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.78 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Rafael Tobias | 19c | 2,713$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.55 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Rafael Tobias | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 2,480$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -7.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Rafael Tobias | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lucas Fernando | 70c | 1,986$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.94 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Lucas Fernando | 75c | 1,946$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.32 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…b2e4backed Lucas Fernando | 76c | 1,913$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.64 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb450…eaefbacked Rafael Tobias | 28c | 1,760$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 1,725$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.75 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…9120backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 1,725$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 1,700$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 1,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rafael Tobias | 14c | 1,461$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 1,460$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.65 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 1,456$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Rafael Tobias | 22c | 1,401$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.24 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…a656backed Lucas Fernando | 72c | 1,350$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…1883backed Rafael Tobias | 22c | 1,343$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Lucas Fernando | 74c | 1,340$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.46 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Rafael Tobias | 20c | 1,325$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.96 | 224 | 38.4%86 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Rafael Tobias | 12c | 1,273$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Rafael Tobias | 1c | 1,216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 1,152$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.98 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…126abacked Rafael Tobias | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Rafael Tobias | 21c | 1,024$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Rafael Tobias | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…5ac7backed Rafael Tobias | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Lucas Fernando | 70c | 999.97$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.99 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Rafael Tobias | 22c | 915.77$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Rafael Tobias | 6c | 862.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Rafael Tobias | 29c | 860$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Lucas Fernando | 71c | 858$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Rafael Tobias | 16c | 838.88$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Lucas Fernando | 72c | 835.99$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.08 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…08b6backed Rafael Tobias | 3c | 781.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 766.67$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Rafael Tobias | 14c | 699.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Lucas Fernando | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Lucas Fernando | 74c | 635$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Lucas Fernando | 70c | 606.99$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc562…41e0backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 562.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…4b00backed Rafael Tobias | 13c | 560.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…107bbacked Lucas Fernando | 70c | 550$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Lucas Fernando | 71c | 532.65$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.07 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…2e27backed Lucas Fernando | 70c | 429.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 411.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Rafael Tobias | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…56cdbacked Rafael Tobias | 28c | 400$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rafael Tobias | 23c | 385.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.74 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Lucas Fernando | 71c | 365.25$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.18 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…9978backed Rafael Tobias | 26c | 348.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…b4bebacked Lucas Fernando | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Rafael Tobias | 30c | 335$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Rafael Tobias | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…a4ebbacked Rafael Tobias | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed Rafael Tobias | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8597backed Rafael Tobias | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 311.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Rafael Tobias | 27c | 311.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Rafael Tobias | 16c | 311.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Rafael Tobias | 27c | 300$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Rafael Tobias | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Lucas Fernando | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Rafael Tobias | 29c | 299.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Rafael Tobias | 10c | 291.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Lucas Fernando | 76c | 289.16$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Lucas Fernando | 72c | 280$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Rafael Tobias | 12c | 275.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf202…4322backed Lucas Fernando | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Lucas Fernando win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.