UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03578a649bba82ccc6fe1d4fd74e9881f3281a67b06b1b959b36f323791eaddb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes | 37c | 27,040$10,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,004.7 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 63c | 21,036$13,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,783.32 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 63c | 2,222$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.14 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 51c | 2,142$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.81 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked No | 64c | 1,550$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 34c | 1,525$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.48 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed No | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…b9f5backed No | 74c | 1,408$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 26c | 893.05$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.39 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked No | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 63c | 417.57$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.37 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 55c | 348.24$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.44 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 63c | 274$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 62c | 232.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked No | 63c | 231.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…107abacked Yes | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 50c | 64.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cfffbacked No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 77c | 45.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 33c | 37.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…585dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)Lucas Fernando won
- Will Lucas Fernando win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.