UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781fa8e44d9e8b90fd814cbab8465c3985acc31f5ebdce209b9378b15242b6e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 47c | 47,053$22,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,087 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 53c | 35,255$18,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,569.85 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 7,086$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,298.45 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…e7cbbacked Over | 44c | 4,694$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 42c | 2,575$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.63 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Under | 53c | 2,082$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.54 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 71c | 1,534$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.04 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…2d5ebacked Under | 56c | 1,070$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 941$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.27 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…8136backed Over | 8c | 588.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Under | 53c | 555.55$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.11 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 48c | 236.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Under | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b87…dffdbacked Under | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Under | 56c | 158.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 56c | 138$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Under | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 42c | 103.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Under | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 56c | 63.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf48…10cabacked Over | 45c | 61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 56c | 60.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 55c | 47.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 35.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…d953backed Under | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…a62fbacked Under | 56c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…06a4backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)Lucas Fernando won
- Will Lucas Fernando win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.