UFC · resolved market
Will Lucas Fernando win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091a55e658983ef735eb243b4265dedbeef31484a3657e1cd1fddedf9bc304e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes | 45c | 1,106$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.19 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 60c | 1,010$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Yes | 48c | 1,010$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 58c | 383.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 50c | 196.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.03 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 50c | 156.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a74…9a36backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 50c | 66.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 34.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…67afbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lucas Fernando win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)Lucas Fernando won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.