MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39786f0f75ee9c3cba93eaf45b5aada17f805c03b6d9b0b2eb90b4d14ae56cae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 47c | 5,970$2,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,805.92 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 2,732$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 53c | 2,358$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.49 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Yes | 48c | 1,604$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked No | 52c | 1,484$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.48 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed No | 53c | 699.47$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.75 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 47c | 645.9$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.57 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…e762backed No | 53c | 628.47$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 53c | 462.96$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.59 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked No | 53c | 377.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 363.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 53c | 350$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 69c | 141.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 47c | 126.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 53c | 94.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Yes | 47c | 72.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…4a81backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked No | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…d01abacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…3457backed No | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…5581backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Raysthis page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.