TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb727…2a9dbacked Baltimore Orioles59c52,873$31,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,677.794645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Tampa Bay Rays41c37,027$15,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,181.0723538.3%90 W · 145 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Tampa Bay Rays29c14,500$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.937352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles71c10,427$7,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.8710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Tampa Bay Rays41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4601,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f48…235cbacked Baltimore Orioles60c5,713$3,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.612035%7 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd898…20e7backed Tampa Bay Rays41c5,066$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.193053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d90…1309backed Tampa Bay Rays42c3,325$1,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays17c3,276$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.478,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles58c2,983$1,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.975,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Tampa Bay Rays42c2,546$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.865749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays40c1,900$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Baltimore Orioles70c1,700$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.521,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Tampa Bay Rays41c1,688$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.218633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles70c1,626$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.918,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Tampa Bay Rays41c1,537$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6309642.7%41 W · 55 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles62c1,507$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.122,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Baltimore Orioles59c1,326$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.661,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles61c1,155$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.0812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Baltimore Orioles60c1,111$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.486653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays41c1,090$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.526,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays36c974.82$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.111,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Tampa Bay Rays41c869.2$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.371,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Tampa Bay Rays40c859$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.63,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca7…bf27backed Tampa Bay Rays41c705.68$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.331464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Tampa Bay Rays33c692.96$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.765,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Baltimore Orioles78c677.37$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.584,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays23c585.19$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.52,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Tampa Bay Rays42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21029950.5%151 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x457f…aa1abacked Tampa Bay Rays40c489.71$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+45.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Tampa Bay Rays34c391.9$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3425053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Tampa Bay Rays42c368.4$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7379543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles74c326.07$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.742,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Baltimore Orioles59c284.28$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.551,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Tampa Bay Rays41c257.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6656253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles73c219.95$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.391,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles59c215$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.498,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Tampa Bay Rays5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06fa…d071backed Tampa Bay Rays20c192.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.567742.9%33 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Tampa Bay Rays28c175.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0947345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Tampa Bay Rays43c174.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.249639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays40c171.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.772,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Tampa Bay Rays40c147.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8858352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Tampa Bay Rays42c134.11$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.331,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed Baltimore Orioles38c130.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7719041.1%78 W · 112 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Tampa Bay Rays41c113.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6231446.8%147 W · 167 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tampa Bay Rays42c101.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.831,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Baltimore Orioles49c99.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5158746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b0…e756backed Tampa Bay Rays27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays23c96.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.985,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Tampa Bay Rays23c94.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2256435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays40c87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.982,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Baltimore Orioles62c82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1652638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays41c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.720138.8%78 W · 123 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Tampa Bay Rays37c65.56$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9863954.5%348 W · 291 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.32,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Tampa Bay Rays37c53.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Tampa Bay Rays41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3134149.3%168 W · 173 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Tampa Bay Rays42c45.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0497944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Baltimore Orioles58c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.922352.5%117 W · 106 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Baltimore Orioles62c44.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1842451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…b2cebacked Tampa Bay Rays45c44.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.022330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Tampa Bay Rays45c44.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.025637.5%21 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x641d…eeedbacked Baltimore Orioles60c43.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.485851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Tampa Bay Rays41c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9927448.2%132 W · 142 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Tampa Bay Rays41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.355643.9%244 W · 312 L-38.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x257b…c08bbacked Tampa Bay Rays42c28.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219147.6%91 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb96…ea06backed Tampa Bay Rays41c26.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931625%4 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles68c22.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.439,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Baltimore Orioles58c22.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3947852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Baltimore Orioles72c21.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.95759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Baltimore Orioles63c18.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7626857.1%153 W · 115 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Baltimore Orioles68c16.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4279955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.