MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x561287f0d85c03322b6f2086ea89e92c64346d2a546141cf6e09c9f0de219568
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 66c | 1,164$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 1,109$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 67c | 572.67$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 417.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 68c | 372.45$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 18c | 365.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 61c | 203.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 46c | 190$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 158.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 37c | 121.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcd…6cd6backed Under | 79c | 97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 33c | 86.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 47c | 84.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 27c | 71.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Over | 43c | 58.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 68c | 58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 67c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 55.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9707…6fbdbacked Under | 67c | 44.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 34c | 34.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.