MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1319198b84daba314dc671304bc6a08afc3b9ea0a1498dba2edccc5e8a54de35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 78,863$41,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,075.53 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 20,668$9,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,714 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 47c | 12,631$5,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,936.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 10,384$4,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,914.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 9,772$4,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.84 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 6,359$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,988.73 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 47c | 6,300$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 2,377$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.21 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 1,264$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.02 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 1,078$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.85 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.94 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 994.24$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 974$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 903$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 879.73$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 54c | 761.82$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 45c | 690$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.5 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 65c | 613.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.01 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 47c | 606$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.82 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 600$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…219fbacked Over | 54c | 538.89$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 532$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 505.93$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.73 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 47c | 379$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 44c | 375.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 36c | 360.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 47c | 298$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 292.18$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 47c | 278.19$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.75 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 48c | 183.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 54c | 179.04$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 174.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 49c | 147$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 144$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 47c | 122.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 35c | 115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 107.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…4709backed Under | 47c | 105.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 99.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Under | 58c | 86.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 59c | 79.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 48c | 74.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 47c | 70.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 47c | 64.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 27c | 59.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 44c | 44.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 41.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Over | 66c | 34.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 56c | 21.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.