MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa1b9813d4d7e839d6466d0264aa555cfc7c679185d984a13140581de4d2b00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 62c | 35,868$22,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,136.95 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 17,936$6,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,030.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 13,077$4,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,098.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 4,217$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…a081backed Under | 41c | 2,195$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 42c | 1,914$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.52 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 827.03$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 65c | 797$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.53 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 555$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 69c | 484.23$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.07 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 394.31$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.28 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 40c | 187.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.59 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 40c | 181.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 47c | 150.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 127.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 119.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 49c | 93.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 50c | 91.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Over | 59c | 37.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 58c | 31.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 39c | 25.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.