MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d144ce6bde8cc785a7f01ba48b3ce176b5b5e809824f994015d4ce848326e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 18,670$5,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,787.7 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 10,329$7,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,206.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 6,000$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 4,839$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.16 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 4,300$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…9fd5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 2,881$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 2,321$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 1,197$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.09 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 985.2$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 332$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 299.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 275.29$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 216.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 215.48$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 183.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 76c | 156.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 66.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 68c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 47.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 40.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 36.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 35.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 34.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 24.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…235cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.