TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
3DMAXof magic, 3DMAX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$764,328
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$798,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $764,328 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed magic29c56,547$16,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,238.911,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed 3DMAX43c50,000$21,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,499.9420354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed magic57c30,000$17,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,099.9941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked magic56c25,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00075652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed magic60c24,831$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00019055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked 3DMAX44c23,741$10,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,295.2214145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed 3DMAX43c20,558$8,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,756.8742142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked 3DMAX32c17,785$5,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,136.2359839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked 3DMAX38c15,000$5,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,349.996454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked magic63c11,834$7,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,434.7664852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed magic56c9,780$5,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,474.432,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ffbbacked 3DMAX42c9,541$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,489.594163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 3DMAX42c9,036$3,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,249.012,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed magic60c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked magic60c8,333$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked 3DMAX16c8,200$1,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,874.2429127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 3DMAX40c8,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80076058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked magic63c7,778$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed magic55c7,191$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.5487047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked 3DMAX61c6,564$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.4519229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked magic57c6,500$3,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70535940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed magic57c6,077$3,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.8266851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 3DMAX38c5,555$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.0288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…0171backed magic77c5,232$4,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,018.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed 3DMAX37c5,000$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked 3DMAX40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0006243.5%27 W · 35 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed 3DMAX43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.9875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked magic55c4,842$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.0732552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fe…c916backed magic62c4,758$2,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,949.071668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed magic45c4,627$2,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.9388746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed magic35c4,549$1,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.251,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed magic58c4,478$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.081,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked magic51c4,154$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,132.181,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed 3DMAX34c4,085$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6966152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX39c4,001$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.6278639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 3DMAX39c4,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,43071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed magic38c4,000$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed 3DMAX25c3,956$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,961.4881843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked magic57c3,883$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.961,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked magic57c3,836$2,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,186.521,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed 3DMAX42c3,820$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,215.5628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x291c…f1a9backed magic80c3,819$3,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,044.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic61c3,790$2,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,297.735,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked magic47c3,673$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.291,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed magic57c3,554$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.6246149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c2…421bbacked 3DMAX68c3,524$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.57057.1%40 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…0a0dbacked 3DMAX40c3,400$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xece2…53ddbacked magic61c3,320$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fac…1feebacked magic64c3,304$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.455850%29 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed 3DMAX48c3,051$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5911,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed magic55c2,982$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.2137946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX59c2,878$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.746,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed 3DMAX36c2,785$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.410053%53 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked 3DMAX49c2,785$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.299445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed 3DMAX11c2,700$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.9722943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fa…5babbacked 3DMAX40c2,580$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+89.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x461d…db9ebacked magic72c2,567$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,858.495052%26 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked 3DMAX35c2,542$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.944647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed 3DMAX42c2,500$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.981338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed 3DMAX38c2,423$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.897040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 3DMAX31c2,167$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,487.055,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked magic24c2,164$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.522241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef7…0a2dbacked 3DMAX37c2,106$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+82.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked 3DMAX49c2,019$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.722,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed 3DMAX38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24032844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d2…0ffebacked 3DMAX41c2,000$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1851650%8 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked 3DMAX39c2,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.9981244.3%360 W · 452 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked 3DMAX39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.961353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef0…b585backed 3DMAX14c1,999$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.7714440.3%58 W · 86 L-10.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked magic56c1,981$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.9227452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc38…3c4cbacked 3DMAX60c1,960$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7843857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 3DMAX37c1,954$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.5732732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked 3DMAX36c1,950$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.3614659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked 3DMAX39c1,944$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.825567.3%37 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed 3DMAX43c1,880$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.598752.9%46 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed 3DMAX37c1,800$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.57548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed magic34c1,772$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.652,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 3DMAX27c1,770$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.861837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…873ebacked 3DMAX43c1,759$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.635534.5%19 W · 36 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed magic57c1,741$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.3745646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc790…cbd2backed magic58c1,739$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.441838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed 3DMAX40c1,717$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.284057.5%23 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed magic60c1,709$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.2714846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed 3DMAX36c1,707$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.2511758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed magic59c1,697$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.2537157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked 3DMAX40c1,646$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.572152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed magic60c1,622$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.4726360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked magic62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked magic62c1,613$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed magic48c1,600$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76843455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked 3DMAX62c1,548$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.2552837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed magic69c1,529$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.4621060%126 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked magic34c1,527$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.683,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed magic60c1,525$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.2546555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked 3DMAX46c1,522$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.0714147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda03…fa78backed magic48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7201353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed 3DMAX37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94560248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 3DMAX37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9451,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed magic63c1,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94515251.3%78 W · 74 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed 3DMAX40c1,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.9615838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.