MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e1b084f4cc11e1a301c1ab5d0d8146396bb0015debb2cb67c70985754640da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 3,354$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.22 | 205 | 55.6%114 W · 91 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 1,005$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.25 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Under | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 990.96$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.6 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 31c | 927.84$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 288 | 51%147 W · 141 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 710.12$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over | 44c | 568.18$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked Under | 57c | 530$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 58c | 510.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.27 | 136 | 64.7%88 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 43c | 413.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…227fbacked Under | 57c | 408.18$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.52 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed Under | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 373.71$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 369.63$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 182 | 52.2%95 W · 87 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Over | 16c | 289.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Under | 57c | 275$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 250.02$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 209$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Under | 57c | 205.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 57c | 171.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 195 | 54.4%106 W · 89 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 160.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.92 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 57c | 123.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 107.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2645…ccc3backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 226 | 57.1%129 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 63c | 63.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…2c65backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 219 | 54.8%120 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 56c | 50.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed Under | 57c | 50.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 49c | 46.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 56c | 44.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…b30abacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…f0f8backed Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 144 | 49.3%71 W · 73 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Over | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 43c | 33.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 31c | 32.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 37c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 26.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 46c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 58c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 57c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 71c | 18.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.