MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd22da20350a4bfe6a20a6001c351d30eac1b5ced814d1cff4785bfbd52ab95bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba2c…473dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 14,884$8,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,355.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 12,284$5,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,162.4 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 2,704$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 1,794$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.15 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 1,549$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 971.4$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 399$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.27 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 370.02$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 31c | 354.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 168$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 105.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Los Angeles Angels | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 79.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 76.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 76.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 75.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 73.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 57.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 47c | 54.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 50.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d4…7b65backed Los Angeles Angels | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 28c | 46.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Los Angeles Angels | 27c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 31.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 27.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.