MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56add769ab24d48e9ec97411b500daf7ec53edbf2b9811266b5195b0925428e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 65c | 4,411$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.75 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 4,370$2,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 3,049$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 11c | 2,604$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 36c | 2,475$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.29 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 1,308$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 1,203$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 33c | 1,050$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 32c | 879.49$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.84 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 685.62$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.94 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 11c | 659.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 627.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 34c | 611.76$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 33c | 402.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 316.67$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Under | 67c | 292.48$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Under | 61c | 215.11$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 24c | 160.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 69c | 140.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 34c | 122.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 32c | 111$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 68c | 104.03$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 68c | 100.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 68c | 85.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 32c | 79.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 68c | 70.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 67c | 66.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 67c | 66.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Over | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 65c | 58.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 32c | 48.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 68c | 40.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Over | 37c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 30.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 68c | 25.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 60c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…2919backed Under | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 68c | 16.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.