MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c581b67638fcca96b7aa057c0a35dfdb335118f8898281b31a5d858a80c941b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed No | 52c | 4,000$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.55 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Yes | 55c | 2,994$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.86 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 48c | 2,926$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 54c | 2,691$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed No | 47c | 2,085$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.95 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 53c | 1,985$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.95 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…bf06backed No | 47c | 1,905$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.16 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc2…1be1backed Yes | 6c | 1,685$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 1,291$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked No | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.14 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 48c | 641.45$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.9 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 45c | 606.67$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.67 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 45c | 178.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 165.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 48c | 150.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 45c | 145$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 50c | 58.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832f…be94backed No | 46c | 53.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…44dcbacked No | 46c | 53.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 46c | 47.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9d…0c3fbacked No | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Oriolesthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore OriolesLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.