TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Angelsof Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,619 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Baltimore Orioles38c9,266$3,563 inLost-$3,562.651,38650.6%702 W · 684 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels61c5,471$3,337 inWon+$2,133.696,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels62c3,000$1,860 inWon+$1,1405,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Baltimore Orioles38c1,087$413 inLost-$413.061,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Los Angeles Angels63c775.83$489 inWon+$287.061,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles37c696.94$258 inLost-$258.4711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles37c695.09$257 inLost-$257.182,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Baltimore Orioles38c671$255 inLost-$254.982,31052.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Los Angeles Angels66c499.99$329 inWon+$17147552%247 W · 228 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels62c426.12$264 inWon+$162.036,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Los Angeles Angels61c399$243 inWon+$155.611,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Angels62c351.52$217 inWon+$134.532,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Los Angeles Angels63c300$189 inWon+$11187850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Angels66c276.3$182 inWon+$94.271,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Los Angeles Angels62c269.15$167 inWon+$102.2841048.3%198 W · 212 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Los Angeles Angels62c205$127 inWon+$77.91,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Los Angeles Angels65c200$129 inWon+$7199947.5%475 W · 524 L-3.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels62c200$124 inWon+$768,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Baltimore Orioles34c171.52$58 inLost-$58.3223548.9%115 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Baltimore Orioles36c144.98$52 inLost-$52.0956440.4%228 W · 336 L-16.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Los Angeles Angels62c128$79 inWon+$48.6473949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Los Angeles Angels62c128$79 inWon+$48.645552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Baltimore Orioles20c117.11$23 inLost-$23.2914336.4%52 W · 91 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Los Angeles Angels62c100$62 inWon+$3812051.7%62 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c8…023abacked Los Angeles Angels59c99.99$59 inWon+$4115954.7%87 W · 72 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Baltimore Orioles38c99$38 inLost-$37.6233352.3%174 W · 159 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels62c87.1$54 inWon+$33.279,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Baltimore Orioles40c62.64$25 inLost-$2566748.7%325 W · 342 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9735…db39backed Los Angeles Angels62c60$37 inWon+$22.86154.1%33 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b2…79ddbacked Los Angeles Angels63c57.94$36 inWon+$21.444257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Angels62c49.25$30 inWon+$18.8388656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels59c48.24$28 inWon+$19.84,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Baltimore Orioles35c39.88$14 inLost-$14.1541648.8%203 W · 213 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453d…2dbabacked Baltimore Orioles35c33.3$12 inLost-$11.744447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels70c19.01$13 inWon+$5.7110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.