TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$246,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$167,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $246,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2097…fe91backed Yes0c31,451$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9c…b3c1backed Yes0c26,151$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…5181backed Yes1c25,283$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd214…7d30backed Yes0c20,039$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6194…f5abbacked Yes0c18,642$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e32…1a1cbacked Yes0c18,282$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c11,363$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7832814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x109d…1fc7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c6…a11ebacked Yes0c9,079$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x055f…19d7backed Yes2c5,731$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.09100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes1c4,616$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4114425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c2,639$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.89490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e8…2867backed Yes6c2,276$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.1360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,875$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.661,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes1c1,853$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7317017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a4…3fe9backed Yes2c1,442$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb25…b6dbbacked Yes8c1,254$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,211$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0719133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x783b…2345backed Yes9c1,162$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-74.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes7c1,136$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0229423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fa…9795backed Yes4c1,035$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c921.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099b…bf38backed Yes11c807.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c564.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked Yes5c559.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.062240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+68.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…2e84backed Yes4c487.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc064…b45fbacked Yes7c408.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes7c381.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3222030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89a8…2b17backed Yes3c361.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b9…2592backed Yes4c329.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes5c228.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.66429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes7c183.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.554637%17 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes10c150.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.