UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a9d964e0798ab2d4139feab5b2f3a90f513ed1584b7c5b36cddac86630a4b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dione Barbosaof Dione Barbosa, Anna Melisano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 7,102$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.34 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Anna Melisano | 14c | 1,677$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.97 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Anna Melisano | 15c | 1,614$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 1,236$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Anna Melisano | 17c | 1,106$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa8…cae6backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 968.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7380…9019backed Anna Melisano | 18c | 743$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 699.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Anna Melisano | 17c | 673.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 655.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 650$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…c9eabacked Anna Melisano | 15c | 601.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.21 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…8618backed Anna Melisano | 10c | 600$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 562.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 525.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Anna Melisano | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 394.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…f087backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Anna Melisano | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Anna Melisano | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…eeeebacked Anna Melisano | 7c | 273.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…eeb6backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 220.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…e8c1backed Anna Melisano | 22c | 219.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Anna Melisano | 15c | 186$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Anna Melisano | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Anna Melisano | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Anna Melisano | 15c | 164.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…c4febacked Anna Melisano | 7c | 162.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Anna Melisano | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…238bbacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Anna Melisano | 15c | 101.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Anna Melisano | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 88.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b4…9332backed Anna Melisano | 17c | 87.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed Anna Melisano | 27c | 74.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d14…36fdbacked Anna Melisano | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Anna Melisano | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked Dione Barbosa | 73c | 49.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Dione Barbosa | 76c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Anna Melisano win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.