UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb07dcd8c791d9371141b3a040a9d6fcbb1b2dec505d6d65f8ae970f701c80d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 44c | 45,501$20,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,013.02 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…396dbacked Under | 56c | 43,722$24,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,237.46 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c5…6930backed Under | 52c | 7,315$3,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,528.94 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 54c | 5,900$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,694.99 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 46c | 5,897$2,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.87 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 5,282$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.2 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Over | 50c | 5,078$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.42 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 1,956$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.25 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 54c | 1,630$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.11 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 1,109$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.37 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,021$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.29 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked Under | 59c | 847.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 49c | 656$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 46c | 510.87$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Over | 49c | 480$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Over | 51c | 392.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed Under | 51c | 389.7$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.95 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 332$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Over | 45c | 304.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Under | 52c | 270.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…bdefbacked Under | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 204.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd264…e811backed Under | 60c | 166.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b56…23b4backed Over | 43c | 146.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 40c | 138$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 55c | 74.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Under | 54c | 28.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Under | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 13 | 100%13 W · 0 L | +5.5wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Under | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 56c | 23.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 22.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Dione Barbosa vs. Anna Melisano (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)Dione Barbosa won
- Will Anna Melisano win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.