TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,465,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,616,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,465,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes2c74,521$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,585.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c61,151$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.344121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes3c47,007$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.183839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x403e…ee4cbacked Yes4c30,600$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes0c28,294$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.591915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2808…afd9backed Yes1c25,481$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,470$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.214521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes0c14,122$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c13,757$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.062611.5%3 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c13,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1b…f631backed Yes4c10,564$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d9…fcb6backed Yes2c10,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5e…4033backed Yes2c9,894$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6af8…bac0backed Yes4c9,341$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf299…5e83backed Yes2c8,747$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes1c7,160$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes3c6,730$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.551323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes0c6,636$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.357932.9%26 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes3c6,096$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.714033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes4c5,795$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7238023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes3c5,435$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe523…f087backed Yes2c5,340$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd17c…d635backed Yes1c5,194$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7b…5074backed Yes1c5,105$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e46…8f87backed Yes3c4,985$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4661…4bb4backed Yes2c4,973$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c4,572$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8345723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xada1…e536backed Yes2c4,505$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb25f…ddcdbacked Yes0c4,333$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f5…7926backed Yes1c4,095$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c4,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8418628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes0c3,926$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372939.2%27 W · 266 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…6637backed Yes3c3,644$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf61…d0f9backed Yes1c3,549$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cf…6dc4backed Yes1c3,433$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe8c…bf2bbacked Yes3c3,125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc04e…8574backed Yes1c3,066$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52c…9b2dbacked Yes1c3,066$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b54…b9a5backed Yes1c3,066$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes1c2,732$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9510520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes4c2,622$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc797…49cdbacked Yes2c2,589$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes2c2,476$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.621752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23cb…2fa6backed Yes3c2,091$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba1…5653backed Yes3c2,075$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes2c1,947$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1280%0 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes2c1,773$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb943…777dbacked Yes3c1,767$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Yes3c1,538$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.791421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97a…02e4backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d5d…a62cbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc54…5089backed Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44ab…7cb1backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae4…ac25backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f98…ec42backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x548c…9034backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cec…86d7backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcdf…560abacked Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755e…ed1dbacked Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ee…9d6bbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b1…6db7backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec57…49b9backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dbe…8253backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7db…ae9bbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1343…1a83backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78d…abf8backed Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e8…ad21backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e41…f7babacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf7d…8cf2backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd7…9357backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x313b…5fffbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf81…a558backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc19…d3bfbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x487a…8785backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7173…2798backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41d5…c773backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d2…5c5fbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771e…34b6backed Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e1…8ea5backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6984…ed33backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d32…84b1backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc469…28dfbacked Yes1c1,533$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f97…b035backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1f…8862backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e7…ea59backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515a…85b0backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61da…ed1fbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc94f…f1bfbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412d…7f88backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcdb…42f1backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b8…796bbacked Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6af…1074backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d5…fbb8backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf548…0431backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f67…ac05backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb944…9cb0backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9472…ea98backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0985…1853backed Yes1c1,533$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes2c1,471$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.