TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Damien Anderson vs. Ezra Elliott (Featherweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ezra Elliottof Damien Anderson, Ezra Elliott
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$328,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$342,182

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $328,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Damien Anderson55c175,000$96,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,249.5916244.4%72 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Ezra Elliott45c93,601$42,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,480.557128.2%20 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f8c…e275backed Ezra Elliott45c41,923$18,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,057.757247.2%34 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Ezra Elliott51c24,245$12,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.0713452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Ezra Elliott49c15,142$7,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,763.9720248.5%98 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Damien Anderson48c15,000$7,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,264.988353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ezra Elliott45c11,301$5,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,215.6813039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Damien Anderson49c10,406$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,111.116246.8%29 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Ezra Elliott45c7,500$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,12510664.2%68 W · 38 L+13.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Damien Anderson49c5,039$2,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.7614551%74 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Damien Anderson53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.9812052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Damien Anderson52c4,824$2,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,508.75152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8239…d9a3backed Ezra Elliott45c4,340$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3873857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Ezra Elliott60c4,055$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.7115537.4%58 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Damien Anderson15c3,805$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.5933132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc6ad…1b86backed Ezra Elliott44c3,646$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.745330.2%16 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Ezra Elliott69c2,474$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.986963.8%44 W · 25 L+11.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Damien Anderson51c2,398$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22826140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x191b…5b67backed Ezra Elliott49c2,342$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e0…8618backed Damien Anderson39c2,332$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.688434.5%29 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Damien Anderson15c2,161$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.242326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8089…f935backed Ezra Elliott51c2,000$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$979.972927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71b4…f97ebacked Damien Anderson51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005851.7%30 W · 28 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+192.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9f45backed Damien Anderson20c1,930$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.754748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Ezra Elliott59c1,854$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.254746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3fa…da93backed Ezra Elliott45c1,851$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.231464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d8…b371backed Ezra Elliott45c1,816$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Ezra Elliott45c1,583$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.8329133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Ezra Elliott46c1,521$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.638551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Damien Anderson34c1,502$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Damien Anderson56c1,500$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8405050%25 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed Ezra Elliott69c1,458$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.21560%9 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Ezra Elliott48c1,446$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.7622548%108 W · 117 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Ezra Elliott62c1,338$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.6915348.4%74 W · 79 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Damien Anderson46c1,277$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.235863.8%37 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+43.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Damien Anderson36c1,234$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.0615933.3%53 W · 106 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Damien Anderson54c1,200$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64833948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Ezra Elliott48c1,200$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.3635664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Damien Anderson30c1,104$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.4237754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7380…9019backed Ezra Elliott45c1,101$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…4855backed Damien Anderson54c1,100$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.99650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Ezra Elliott47c1,065$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.455360.4%32 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f86…4fa9backed Ezra Elliott49c1,021$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.3714560%87 W · 58 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Damien Anderson55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5508458.3%49 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Damien Anderson55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Damien Anderson55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9910041%41 W · 59 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Ezra Elliott50c990$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4954447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Ezra Elliott52c986.71$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.62955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Damien Anderson43c956.72$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2716156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Ezra Elliott45c949.31$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5612134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Damien Anderson14c840$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175418.5%10 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Damien Anderson48c825.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f4…936bbacked Ezra Elliott52c825$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3962864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Damien Anderson38c804.23$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2726451.9%137 W · 127 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Ezra Elliott46c777.03$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7742054%227 W · 193 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Damien Anderson55c727.28$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004431.8%14 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Ezra Elliott47c717.51$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.281861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Damien Anderson48c674.74$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.877454.1%40 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Damien Anderson48c651.56$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.754656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Damien Anderson54c648.15$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35029848.7%145 W · 153 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Damien Anderson42c642.81$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.683253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Ezra Elliott47c638.3$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+52.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99b1…196abacked Damien Anderson53c600$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.568861.4%54 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Ezra Elliott49c592.27$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.237842.3%33 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ezra Elliott45c581.85$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.227152.1%37 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Ezra Elliott63c581$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.383357.6%19 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Ezra Elliott54c573.25$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.272846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Damien Anderson37c550$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7513144.3%58 W · 73 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Ezra Elliott50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf874…def4backed Ezra Elliott45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Ezra Elliott52c493.96$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.15552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Ezra Elliott76c478.05$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.841050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Ezra Elliott46c472.09$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.473636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Ezra Elliott67c471.69$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5438353.3%204 W · 179 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Damien Anderson54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016158.4%94 W · 67 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Ezra Elliott65c458.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.762152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Damien Anderson44c450.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Ezra Elliott73c426.44$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.033625%9 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Damien Anderson39c414$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9413951.1%71 W · 68 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Damien Anderson30c412.69$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.1811240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1507…e175backed Damien Anderson47c412.63$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8910746.7%50 W · 57 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Damien Anderson49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+27.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Damien Anderson49c404.08$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47f6…b051backed Damien Anderson55c400$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.83641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Ezra Elliott48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2087949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Damien Anderson53c379.16$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.952441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Damien Anderson44c368.97$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0726736%96 W · 171 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Damien Anderson24c368.44$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Ezra Elliott60c338.43$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.722438.4%86 W · 138 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Damien Anderson31c328.35$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1515444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a6…5691backed Damien Anderson17c327.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Ezra Elliott48c325.37$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.197068.6%48 W · 22 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed Ezra Elliott50c323.72$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7212755.1%70 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Damien Anderson54c320$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.616058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Damien Anderson36c314.04$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3515839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Damien Anderson56c307.29$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.081353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Damien Anderson50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506250%31 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e00…ba80backed Damien Anderson33c299.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x671d…2e26backed Damien Anderson31c291.01$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905637.5%21 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eee…9b2bbacked Damien Anderson53c290$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.73030%9 W · 21 L-6.1wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.