Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03cd7b035b4b9c4e4879e7e8ab95b896e9f7d60c4bd5224ec4ed4da6e0ff068d

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $421,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $220,058

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	23,252$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.1	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	22,855$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.79	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	14,146$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	8,438$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.41	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	2c	7,052$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.04	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	5,122$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.47	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	4,912$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.95	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,726$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	4,636$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.69	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4595…6dddbacked Yes	0c	4,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	4,468$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.52	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,456$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	4,173$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.66	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	4c	4,028$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.87	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	3c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8576…f4bfbacked Yes	0c	3,795$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.69	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	3,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	3,465$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	3,139$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,917$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,583$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,575$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.63	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,500$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.59	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	2,460$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.37	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	3c	2,458$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	3c	2,387$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.5	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	2,310$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	9c	2,296$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.69	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	2c	2,271$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.14	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,119$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,006$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.08	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	5c	1,971$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	1,678$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	1,600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	5c	1,404$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.74	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	4c	1,400$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.37	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	7c	1,400$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.77	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	1c	1,296$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.93	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,085$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.46	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,082$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	1,050$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	8c	991.56$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes	3c	906.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	705.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	6c	673.17$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.16	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	667.04$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.74	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	3c	645.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	6c	639.2$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	638.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	601.25$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.49	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	567.81$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	3c	556.38$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	6c	550$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c59…f363backed Yes	3c	534.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	6c	478.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	443.82$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…c9d2backed Yes	7c	348.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	9c	339.54$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	334.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	4c	301.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc4…1403backed Yes	8c	282$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.27	72	34.7%25 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	5c	273.95$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9277…c2d7backed Yes	8c	273.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.29	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1efe…ac77backed Yes	4c	263.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	99	10.1%10 W · 89 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a5…a67cbacked Yes	7c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6206…cf4cbacked Yes	8c	198.39$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc7…b583backed Yes	8c	172.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0af6…a114backed Yes	9c	170$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+125.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	7c	153.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c36…0f09backed Yes	8c	136.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event