Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ffcc3d8b57b86e08fcae54cadf122f777353a486d3118512a5e5c9ec0a79eb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $340,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	34,846$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.85	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	32,628$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.63	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	18,326$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	9,312$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.86	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	8,583$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.56	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	8,422$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	3c	7,087$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.67	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	1c	4,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	4,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	3,333$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,120$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	3,020$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	3,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	2,982$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,705$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	5c	2,521$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.87	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	2,450$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,364$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	1c	2,355$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	2,170$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	2c	1,833$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.97	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,718$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	2c	1,650$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.76	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,584$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.26	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	3c	1,414$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d4…7ad6backed Yes	1c	1,239$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,032$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.19	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	820.83$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	809.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2800…c9d2backed Yes	4c	796.64$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	4c	759.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.55	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	2c	687.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	3c	656.07$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x355a…24c6backed Yes	2c	640.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	5c	606.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	451.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	413.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event