TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$70,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,362 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes0c14,541$26 inLost-$26.096097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes0c9,753$48 inLost-$48.0325311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes0c8,404$39 inLost-$39.424816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes2c6,715$114 inLost-$114.151834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes0c5,358$12 inLost-$11.71981%1 W · 97 L-0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c4,638$14 inLost-$13.912785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes3c4,278$108 inLost-$107.7733422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,651$18 inLost-$17.591,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes2c3,425$53 inLost-$53.171,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes0c3,208$13 inLost-$13.4618511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c3,197$21 inLost-$20.5688610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes1c3,143$47 inLost-$46.5412421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes0c2,800$11 inLost-$11.210710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes0c2,782$13 inLost-$12.71953.2%3 W · 92 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes1c2,749$35 inLost-$35.21557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8576…f4bfbacked Yes0c2,718$11 inLost-$10.6550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c2,314$27 inLost-$27.211,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes2c2,072$38 inLost-$38.1316124.2%39 W · 122 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes2c2,038$35 inLost-$34.8168615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,750$20 inLost-$20.085535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes1c1,050$11 inLost-$10.5718.5%6 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost-$10365.6%2 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-65.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes2c850$15 inLost-$15.3296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes2c663.92$13 inLost-$13.2813119.8%26 W · 105 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.