Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7b464e5feb79a9c6d586fa3605d21c3dcbb46c289f715f2ecff93930be5b8e

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $366,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,756 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	0c	37,999$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	33,815$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.28	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	19,362$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.27	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	0c	13,128$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	1c	10,460$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes	0c	10,337$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee9…2673backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b63…bdd3backed Yes	0c	8,831$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	0c	8,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	7,476$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	0c	6,573$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	6,560$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,937$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,766$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	3c	4,436$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.5	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.66	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	0c	2,543$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,519$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	0c	2,501$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	2,112$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	2,016$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.19	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	1,779$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.81	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,735$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,730$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.13	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	10c	1,687$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.37	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	1,527$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	1,383$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.48	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,330$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.42	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	1c	1,328$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46a0…77a9backed Yes	7c	1,300$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	7c	1,297$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.79	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	20c	1,160$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.54	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,086$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…3684backed Yes	18c	1,066$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.93	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	1,060$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	5c	1,050$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	2c	1,042$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	11c	1,037$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.69	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes	15c	999.99$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	36	5.6%2 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	16c	980.81$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.7	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	8c	978.24$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	949.77$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.73	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3a2c…b7f7backed Yes	16c	873.53$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	18c	830.35$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.46	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	18c	733.97$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.66	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	633.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0085…a8fcbacked Yes	16c	633.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.25	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c11…ef93backed Yes	16c	625.7$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.61	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	540.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	9c	503.5$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	19c	370.44$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…736cbacked Yes	17c	334.32$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	4c	308.43$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	14c	275.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	228.1$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.62	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe196…b2b8backed Yes	7c	189.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-85.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	21c	185$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes	15c	165$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	15c	160.58$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	19c	160$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3811…106fbacked Yes	15c	135.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55e…3ababacked Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	13c	107.69$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fc…d760backed Yes	18c	96.33$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c18…926abacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55f1…d323backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event