Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12d40786fe41726a9fc797fef32e9366152f394a8c4c309dcb4fbc984827eb5

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $170,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,736 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	9,543$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	8,400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	0c	7,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	6,053$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	3,987$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	3,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,624$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.87	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,235$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	5c	2,133$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.16	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	1c	2,087$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	3c	1,744$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.04	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	3c	1,381$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	3c	1,256$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	1,111$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.7	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	1,050$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	6c	1,006$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.84	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	977.55$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.38	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	953.15$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.58	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba81…528cbacked Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	546$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.43	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	8c	380$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18d4…307cbacked Yes	8c	350$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	75	18.7%14 W · 61 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	7c	278.21$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	221$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	200	25%50 W · 150 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x143b…74b5backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	12cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event