NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa86561ff5ce6e8e50dea3cbf14a42cbaf1ec018dca3bd43e0d8909e633ec0f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $899,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,135,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae5…8342backed Lightning | 55c | 186,052$102,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,723.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning | 59c | 185,261$108,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,655.85 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Red Wings | 40c | 143,589$57,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,808.2 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Red Wings | 45c | 40,055$18,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,006.78 | 309 | 44.7%138 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 46c | 34,515$15,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,708.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…cc53backed Red Wings | 47c | 31,915$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Lightning | 55c | 26,629$14,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,982.96 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 45c | 24,844$11,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,246.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Red Wings | 45c | 22,050$9,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,922.5 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Red Wings | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Lightning | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,399.97 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Red Wings | 45c | 17,607$7,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,976.85 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Lightning | 54c | 13,723$7,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,301.83 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Red Wings | 37c | 13,174$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,866.03 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Red Wings | 46c | 12,838$5,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,905.55 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 45c | 11,249$5,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,088.63 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Red Wings | 45c | 11,146$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016.4 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Red Wings | 46c | 10,440$4,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,802.1 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Red Wings | 45c | 9,252$4,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,163.52 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Red Wings | 47c | 8,995$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,227.63 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb78…5206backed Lightning | 50c | 8,922$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,421.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 42cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Lightning | 55c | 8,030$4,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Red Wings | 45c | 7,657$3,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.2 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 53c | 7,427$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,489.79 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings | 45c | 7,233$3,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,254.92 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Lightning | 53c | 5,824$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.37 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…0bf5backed Lightning | 54c | 5,688$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,616.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…24d5backed Red Wings | 46c | 5,680$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Red Wings | 45c | 5,655$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.07 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 54c | 5,053$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.96 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Red Wings | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Red Wings | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings | 39c | 3,801$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.63 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Lightning | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…9bbdbacked Red Wings | 46c | 3,585$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…24c0backed Lightning | 54c | 3,585$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Red Wings | 32c | 3,358$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.93 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Red Wings | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.18 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Red Wings | 47c | 3,281$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Red Wings | 42c | 3,182$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.23 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Red Wings | 45c | 3,112$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.4 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Red Wings | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Red Wings | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Lightning | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.95 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…9110backed Red Wings | 45c | 2,857$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.48 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Lightning | 54c | 2,600$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4477…55aabacked Lightning | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…4c20backed Red Wings | 46c | 2,300$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Lightning | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Red Wings | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Red Wings | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 318 | 51.9%165 W · 153 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Lightning | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.99 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…6904backed Lightning | 54c | 1,997$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,978$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.78 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Red Wings | 46c | 1,848$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Lightning | 54c | 1,848$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Red Wings | 47c | 1,781$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Lightning | 68c | 1,720$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.14 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Lightning | 54c | 1,539$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.94 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f7…57adbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…7c34backed Red Wings | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Lightning | 40c | 1,486$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.73 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Red Wings | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Red Wings | 27c | 1,396$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.01 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…26ecbacked Lightning | 54c | 1,350$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…028bbacked Red Wings | 47c | 1,350$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Lightning | 55c | 1,300$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.26 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…0acabacked Red Wings | 47c | 1,250$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de6…24c8backed Lightning | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Red Wings | 46c | 1,195$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.56 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Red Wings | 47c | 1,190$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.4 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Red Wings | 46c | 1,075$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.5 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Red Wings | 46c | 1,048$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Red Wings | 34c | 1,012$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.08 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Red Wings | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Red Wings | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…64b7backed Red Wings | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3c…946cbacked Red Wings | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…3b5dbacked Lightning | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…d919backed Lightning | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3eacbacked Lightning | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…a1e7backed Red Wings | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Red Wings | 46c | 999.98$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 305 | 52.5%160 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…794cbacked Red Wings | 46c | 999.97$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adc…e80dbacked Red Wings | 47c | 940.43$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…90bcbacked Lightning | 54c | 939.76$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lightning | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4446…1fd0backed Lightning | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…849ebacked Lightning | 55c | 911.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.31 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Lightning | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8131…7ec6backed Lightning | 54c | 900$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Red Wings | 46c | 886.48$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.79 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Lightning | 55c | 847$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 1,079 | 54.3%586 W · 493 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Lightning | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…51e1backed Red Wings | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf427…7b42backed Lightning | 54c | 799.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…19d2backed Red Wings | 47c | 780$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 53cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…2c2fbacked Lightning | 54c | 740$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Red Wings | 45c | 700$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lightning | 78c | 687$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Red Wingsthis page
- Lightning vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.